This article is transferred from: economic reference daily

On the 26th, the new energy industry chain showed strong performance, with photovoltaic, wind energy, UHV and other sectors rising. According to wind data, as of the close of the day, among the concept sectors, wind power generation rose by 3.70%, power generation equipment rose by 3.32%, UHV rose by 3.01% and silicone rose by 3.56%; In addition, the indexes of electrical power grid, power supply equipment and photovoltaic inverter all showed strong performance.

In terms of news, the central level recently proposed to strengthen the planning and construction of a new energy supply and consumption system based on large-scale wind and solar power bases, supported by clean, efficient, advanced and energy-saving coal power around them, and supported by stable, safe and reliable UHV power transmission and transformation lines. Put the promotion of new and clean energy in a more prominent position, and actively and orderly develop light energy, silicon energy, hydrogen energy and renewable energy. According to the national power industry statistics of 2021 released by the National Energy Administration recently, by the end of December 2021, the national installed power generation capacity was about 2.38 billion kw, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. Among them, the installed capacity of wind power was about 330 million KW, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%; The installed capacity of solar power generation was about 310 million KW, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%.

At the company level, Jingke energy, a photovoltaic unit listed on the 26th, is also popular in the market. According to wind data, the opening price of Jingke energy, which was first listed, was 8.50 yuan, with the highest intraday increase of 139.00%. On the same day, it closed up 111.00% and closed at 10.55 yuan, with a total market value of 105.5 billion yuan.

Guohai Securities believes that wind power and photovoltaic are part of the new energy infrastructure, and the current installed capacity potential is huge. At the same time, the scale of wind power and photovoltaic industry chain is huge, and investment in related fields has also become an important means to smooth the domestic economic cycle. Jibang consulting believes that in the context of global energy transformation, the development of renewable energy is particularly important. It is expected that the new installed capacity of the photovoltaic industry will be about 75gw in 2022.

According to wind data, as of the 26th press release, 22 companies in the photovoltaic industry have disclosed performance forecasts for 2021, of which 18 have reported a year-on-year increase in net profit. From the perspective of the growth rate of predicted net profit, the lowest is 66.76% and the highest is 504.59%. From the perspective of the upper limit amount of forecast net profit growth, Tongwei shares currently ranks first with 8.5 billion yuan. Soochow Securities believes that 2021 is the first year of PV parity in the whole year. At the same time, the prices of upstream raw materials such as industrial silicon and silicon materials are rising, the component prices remain high, and the game atmosphere of the industrial chain is strong, resulting in large fluctuations in production scheduling. However, the overall market demand in 2021 is still higher than expected, and the medium and long-term growth space of the industry is expected to be further opened.

In terms of investment strategy, Great Wall Securities believes that in 2022, the photovoltaic market is expected to usher in a big year of demand driven by the decline of raw material prices and policy support. The industrial chain is facing pattern differentiation and profit redistribution, focusing on multiple investment mainlines. Including: silicon material leading enterprises whose profits are expected to maintain a high level under the tight supply and demand of silicon materials, battery chip leaders who are expected to fully benefit from the tight competition pattern of silicon chips and usher in profit repair and technology leadership, as well as component leaders who fully benefit from the decline in the price of main and auxiliary materials and the improvement of the acceptance of terminal power station investors to the rate of return.

Zhongyuan Securities believes that in 2022, with the increase of silicon supply, the price of photovoltaic modules is expected to re-enter the downward channel, thus stimulating domestic and global installed demand. In the short term, the risk appetite of the secondary market is reduced, and there are signs of rebound after the continuous decline of the photovoltaic sector. Considering the industrial conditions, valuation and market sentiment, we still need to be cautious in the short term. In the medium term, it is suggested to focus on alleviating the shortage of raw material supply and improving the demand for photovoltaic installation, including the top enterprises in the field of thermal field materials, photovoltaic glass, integrated module factory and inverter.